simple pitchers' projections

simplest way to project our pitchers is to take:
2005 projections = current fantasy points x ( games started / 30 starts)

pedro 654
burnett 612
webb 466
wood 313
escobar only has one start...

project our reliever Foulke like a hitter and he gets a whopping 250 fantasy points for the year.

add the four starters and Foulke together and it projects 2295 fantasy points from the staff for 2005. (we had 2396 in '04)

adding hitters and pitchers, we project a total of 6845 for the team, which would've just missed fourth place last year. so, maybe we'll be okay after all...

simple hitters' projections

here are some projections based on performance thus far, and not accounting for performance of prior years. it's about the simplest possible projection:

2005 projection = current fps x ( 162 games / team games thus far ).

that's a nice simple formula, which gives us:

Player Pos Team FPTS Games EFP2
Ortiz, David DH BOS 79 22 582
Vidro, Jose 2B WAS 78 23 549
Dunn, Adam LF CIN 72 22 530
Cabrera, Miguel RF FLA 68 21 525
Teixeira, Mark 1B TEX 70 24 473
Belliard, Ron 2B CLE 61 23 430
Biggio, Craig CF HOU 53 21 409
Crisp, Coco CF CLE 50 23 352
Piazza, Mike C NYM 50 23 352
Miles, Aaron 2B COL 43 20 348
Bartlett, Jason SS MIN 38 22 280
Chavez, Eric 3B OAK 32 23 225

according to this, all players are acceptable excepting Crisp, Bartlett and Chavez. Crisp and Bartlett are expendable at this point, and we'll give Chavez a few more weeks to get things straightened out.

obviously, it would be exciting if four of our hitters topped 500 points. i think last year only bonds and teixeira topped 500 points for us...

if we stuck with the ten best players in this lineup, we'd be projected for 4550 fantasy points, which is a little better than we did with bonds last year (4493). But these are just projections.

what's up with chavez?

we placed 2nd in the division last week, behind the pitching of webb and pedro, and another strong week from vidro. we don't miss carlos guillen much so far. vidro 72 points, guillen 48. lots of season left though. i can't say i'm as happy about not keeping harden...

for week 4:

chavez goes to the bench until we are sure he's over his steroid withdrawals.

we're picking up belliard this week, just to horde another middle infielder.

westbrook will be our two starter giving burnett the week off for his appearance in colorado.

we dropped crosby and bagwell cuz they've been pretty useless.

add coco crisp; benched dunn???

we picked up coco crisp and dropped millwood.
benched dunn and he already has 2 homers today.

week 2 ends

Turncoats take 2nd in the western division behind the East Coast Ballers (helped by Chacin and Buehrle).
For Turncoats:
Burnett gets 49 fps, 2 wins, 2 complete games in tw0 starts.
Vidro gets 33 fps with 5 runs and 8 rbis.

weekly add/drops

- added Millwood for his two starts this week.
- added Biggio since he'll be eligible as a middle infielder in a few weeks. for now he'll replace bagwell in the lineup.
- dropped preston wilson even though he's batting fourth for colorado.
- put crosby on the dl

week 1 summary

well, we won the division this week. sadly it's one of two weeks all season that don't count for money winnings.

ortiz had 30 fps w/ 2 hrs and 4 doubles.
pedro had 49 fps with 21 k's in two starts.
bagwell had 18 fps but i'll still probably bench him next week, so i can pick up biggio.

Opening day lineup

lineup for week 1:
h teixeira
h cabrera
h ortiz
h dunn
h chavez
h bagwell
c piazza
mi crosby
mi miles
mi vidro
sp pedro
sp wood
sp burnett
sp webb
rp foulke

Draft Day

Well, I kept Teixeira, Cabrera, and Pedro from last year. My draft went something like this:
David Ortiz
Eric Chavez
Kerry Wood
Adam Dunn
Jose Vidro
Mike Piazza
Aaron Miles
A.J. Burnett
Jason Bartlett
Brandon Webb
Jeff Bagwell
Keith Foulke
Bobby Crosby
Kelvim Escobar
Preston Wilson

The league requires a lineup of 3 MI (SS/2B), 6 H (OF/1B/3B/DH), 1 C, 4 SPs, and 1 RP.